A Campaign Running Off the Rails

The Joe Biden reelection bid has trouble understanding why they aren't ahead.

Arguments coming out of the White House last week complaining about the image of Biden being an Alzheimer's patient are but the latest example of what appears to be a re-election campaign that's having a hard time understanding real life. When the press secretary refers to images of the president as cheap fakes and that he's as physically and mentally capable as ever they shouldn’t wonder that most of the public question what they are being told.

Campaigns for reelection would usually have decided on what their main lines of arguments are by this stage. This year it appears as though the incumbent has a combination of indecision, inability to understand public feedback, and maybe most important a belief that reelection will just happen.

What is telling about some of these moments that have occurred over the last two months is that the Democrats do seem to understand that they have to at least present a little bit more of an argument in favour of themselves. Whether or not they can adjust is a different question. Up until this moment it's probably fair that almost all of the election strategy focused on how unelectable Donald Trump was. Sitting now a little more than 4 months out it's fairly certain that that's not a good strategy. In fact it looks like it's one that would probably lose.

It might be something of a turning point within the Biden camp's thinking with one of the specific fallouts of Trump's conviction in the New York  hush money trial. One place where Trump had been struggling was fundraising. Since that conviction Trump has now basically pulled even as literally  tens of millions of dollars have been flowing in the door. In short Trump's base has not just become even more enthusiastic; there is at least some evidence that it seems to be much larger and more potent than some might have suspected.

If the central strategy had included some form of Trump's legal issues putting him in a position that made his return to the Oval Office unlikely that's been proven not just incorrect, but if anything Trump's legal situation seems to have helped his political one. 

Something else that might be more bewildering is that they misjudge communications. For whatever else one might want to say, Trump is one of the best masters of controlling the news cycle. Regardless of what is going on Trump can basically ensure that the news media is covering whatever he wants them to. From this standpoint, anyone should have known that Trump,good or bad, was going to manage the images 24 hours a day. Trump's tremendous sales skills come out in spades in this environment. Anyone on the opposing side should know by now that regardless of what the particular situation is Trump is very formidable as a candidate in this regard.

But larger than the person that they have to run against, the Biden crew has a bigger problem seemingly understanding why the general public hasn't given the President more credit. The disconnect between what the presidential campaign perceives the public should be thinking and what the public is actually thinking is likely the most telling of Biden's problems. 

Of any of the coverage of Biden, this is one component that doesn't get enough attention. Those around Biden truly seem to believe that their time in office has borne enough fruit to deserve them another four years. They see their advances on environmental fronts and on trans issues combined with what they perceive as being a better than even economy as enough to help push them across the finish line.

This is one part of Biden's re-election strategy that his own team doesn't seem to understand why it's had limited returns. Yet in almost every single instance all of what they view as being an advantage, instead has hurt their polling numbers. Political managers have always had the occupational hazard of becoming detached. In this case no one seems to be able to get outside the DC suburbs and get how the rest of the country is working.

It's not simply that they don't understand the low approval ratings. For whatever reason the disconnect between that inner bubble and the general public isn't just thick it seems to have almost grown thicker over the last four years.

Granted any incumbent who's running for re-election has to deal with the outcomes of the policies they pursued. But it usually is at least some thing of a possibility to suggest circumstances might require something of a course correction. On this front Biden would probably have at least a little bit of an argument that he came into office during covid. But too many of the election strategists seem completely oblivious to this line of thinking.  And it's probably the cornerstone of most of Biden's team that they don't seem to believe they need to change anything. The public simply doesn't know how good they have it.

 It might be on this front that the issue of Israel and Gaza has exposed a little bit of a problem. When White House staffers literally took to the lawn to protest, their own President showed something of the disconnect between many of the activists within the President's administration and those making decisions. Too much of the inner workings of the political arm see the college campuses as being the proper mirror to the rest of the country. This is akin to most of the public not being in the same headspace as the anti-Israel protesters at Columbia.

If there is a common strand through the disorganised nature of the campaign, it is the lack of awareness. There appeared to be a belief that they could mould an electorate that would ensure the Democratic Party could play to that base. Instead, they find a typical general public hostile to the current office holder in a period where the basics of life like prices are driving public opinion. 

So far, the Biden reelection bid has been a demonstration on how not to manage a political campaign. What remains an open question is whether there is sufficient time for a reset. The debate this week might be an opportunity. But, if how this has been conducted are any indication there seems limited interest in trying to change. That may end up being the biggest indictment of all.